Indirect rate drift lab

Provisional vs actual — catch drift before year-end

Illustrative wrap drift and the hours burned keeping schedules current. Not a DCAA opinion — a Snapshot measures it on your Costpoint / Unanet data.

Annual direct labor / allocation base

$8.0M

Hours / month on rate schedules & ICS prep

28h / month

Avg rate accountant / controller salary

$115,000 · ~$149,500 loaded

Fringe

Provisional28.0%Actual / YTD31.0%

Overhead

Provisional42.0%Actual / YTD47.0%

G&A

Provisional12.0%Actual / YTD13.5%

Point exposure · sum of |actual − provisional| × base

$760K

wrap 82.0% → 91.5% (+950 bps) · P10–P90 $345K–$1.3M

P50 with noisy actuals — this will not match the point exposure above

~185hours / yr automatable

$13Kcapacity at loaded cost

~11months of blind drift if only year-end

$114KSnapshot handoff · capacity, not exposure

Overhead

+500 bps · $400K

Fringe

+300 bps · $240K

G&A

+150 bps · $120K

The headline is the point exposure: each pool's |actual − provisional| times your allocation base, summed. The chart P50 reruns those actuals with noise, so it will sit near the headline and not on it. The Snapshot handoff is capacity (automatable hours × loaded cost), or 15% of point exposure when that is larger — it is not the exposure itself. Capacity is hours back from catching drift monthly. None of these is a claim that every posting is audit-ready on day one.

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Indirect rate drift lab

Replace the drift estimate with a measured figure.